Price level drives mobile connectivity adoption and use
March 2014
The high, in many cases unaffordable, Gigabyte prices commanded by operators in protected markets where challengers are not present are effectively suppressing mobile broadband penetration and most importantly mobile data consumption.

In competitive markets, where a challenger operator group is present and where Gigabyte prices are up to 100 times lower than in protected markets (see Finland €0.17/GB versus Greece €17/GB) mobile data consumption per capita is several times higher (up to 20 times) than in protected markets. There is a clear pattern of significantly lower usage in protected markets where competition is not functioning and operators are collectively suppressing demand by keeping Gigabyte prices artificially high. High prices have similar effect, although not so pronounced, on mobile connectivity adoption. Mobile broadband population penetration is lower in protected markets where Gigabyte prices are significantly higher.

However, as we have argued earlier in our reports penetration is not a very robust competitiveness metric of mobile connectivity. The number of reported active connections often includes large number of connections with very little or almost immaterial usage. Smartphone connections with pay as you go data rates or where the included volume is very small (few tens or few hundred Megabytes) inflate materially the reported mobile connectivity adoption rates in protected markets. Connecting your house to the electricity grid is one thing, switching on the lights and the oven is another.

Mobile data consumption per capita is the most robust mobile connectivity adoption metric. Things are adopted when taken into use.
2014
pricing
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Featured research reports
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[External post, Linkedin]
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5G capacity abundance, flat Capex = paradigm shit. Comments from Finnish Elisa's consumer business VP under the article "what makes these [volume-based] pricing ideas profoundly unsustainable".

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The state of 4G pricing, mobile data usage, spectrum usage, network capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution. After its comeback in 2016, in 2017 unlimited mobile data goes viral and spreads to 22 countries. And while in competitive markets such as France and Denmark consumers can buy 100 or unlimited gigabytes for less than €30, in tight mobile oligopoly markets such as Portugal, Greece and Hungary €30 hardly buys any gigabytes. Europe’s mobile data divide widens further: 200x more gigabytes for €30 in smartphone plans, 600x more gigabytes in mobile broadband plans, 200x difference in median gigabyte prices, 40x difference in mobile data usage per capita and spectrum usage.

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In March 2017 Telefonica O2 Germany announced 3.5 GHz (they have 83 MHz) Massive MIMO (= very high capacity LTE macro sectors) field trials with Huawei for wireless home broadband and 4K video. Our models predict that O2's macro site grid and spectrum resources (FDD+TDD) could allow it to drive fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution in Germany by connecting millions of households with HD TV service on its high capacity LTE network.

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March 2017
When LTE base stations are upgraded to 'Gigabit' speed the gigabyte volume capacity of the networks also greatly expands. We modelled LTE network capacity based on existing FDD and TDD spectrum holdings (and potential acquisitions in 2.3 and 3.4-3.8 GHz bands) and sizes of the macro site grids. Without and with Massive MIMO in the TDD bands. Topical for operators contemplating fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution ahead of upcoming 700, 1500 (SDL), 2300, 3400-3600 MHz spectrum auctions.

The market is changing. Mobile data pricing and network economics metrics and research reports for industry professionals
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