Unlimited mobile data and near zero marginal cost a paradigm shift in telco business models
September 2017

European winners and losers in 4.5G and 5G study of 30 operators. Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run?

Key findings
  • Mobile capacity abundance is disrupting converged operator fixed-line broadband centric business models
  • While data traffic increased up to 7 times the last four years mobile-only operator CAPEX fell or was mostly flat
  • Mobile-only and mobile-centric operators grew their mobile service revenue and cash flow the last 4 years
  • Mobile-only and mobile-centric operator service revenue growth was driven by market share gains, customers willingness to pay a bit more for unlimited plans and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution gains
  • Converged operator mobile service revenue and cash flow continued to fall across the board
  • Despite the heavy investments in fiber fixed revenues continued to decline across the board
  • The fully allocated cost per gigabyte is a very unreliable (Mickey Mouse) metric
  • Peak speed network upgrades have driven mobile network CAPEX the last four years
  • Ultra-competitive network gear market feeds the flat mobile network CAPEX
  • CAPEX elasticity and the spectrum valuation CAPEX paradox
  • Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run?
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2017
networkeconomics
mobile-first
pricing
spectrum
5G
massiveMIMO
Telefonica
DeutscheTelekom
Vodafone
Orange
Hutchison
TelecomItalia
Elisa
DNA
Sunrise
Salt
Play
Tele2
Telenor
Swisscom
TelekomAustria
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