Unlimited mobile data and near zero marginal cost – a paradigm shift in telco business models
European winners and losers in 4.5G and 5G – study of 30 operators. Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run?
- Mobile capacity abundance is disrupting converged operator fixed-line broadband centric business models
- While data traffic increased up to 7 times the last four years mobile-only operator CAPEX fell or was mostly flat
- Mobile-only and mobile-centric operators grew their mobile service revenue and cash flow the last 4 years
- Mobile-only and mobile-centric operator service revenue growth was driven by market share gains, customers willingness to pay a bit more for unlimited plans and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution gains
- Converged operator mobile service revenue and cash flow continued to fall across the board
- Despite the heavy investments in fiber fixed revenues continued to decline across the board
- The fully allocated cost per gigabyte is a very unreliable (Mickey Mouse) metric
- Peak speed network upgrades have driven mobile network CAPEX the last four years
- Ultra-competitive network gear market feeds the flat mobile network CAPEX
- CAPEX elasticity and the spectrum valuation CAPEX paradox
- Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run?
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Digital Fuel Monitor 7th
May 2017 (updated 22.05.2017)
The state of 4G pricing, mobile data usage, spectrum usage, network capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution. After its comeback in 2016, in 2017 unlimited mobile data goes viral and spreads to 22 countries. And while in competitive markets such as France and Denmark consumers can buy 100 or unlimited gigabytes for less than €30, in tight mobile oligopoly markets such as Portugal, Greece and Hungary €30 hardly buys any gigabytes. Europe’s mobile data divide widens further: 200x more gigabytes for €30 in smartphone plans, 600x more gigabytes in mobile broadband plans, 200x difference in median gigabyte prices, 40x difference in mobile data usage per capita and spectrum usage.
The market is changing. Mobile data pricing and network economics metrics and research reports for industry professionals