Rewheel/research

Capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential with existing macro site grids – 2017

September 2018

A study of 80 European, US, Japanese, Korean, Australian and New Zealand mobile operators

Topical for operators contemplating fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution ahead of upcoming 700, 1400 (SDL), 2300, 3400-3800 MHz spectrum auctions

Capacity utilization in 2017 and capacity potential of existing macro cell site grids

Elisa in Finland is the operator (and Finland is the country) with the highest mobile data capacity potential in the world
Verizon was the operator with the highest yearly average capacity utilization of 57% in 2017. Most mobile operators utilized in 2017, similarly to 2016, a fraction (below 20%) of their readily available network capacity
The United States was the country with the highest capacity utilization of 33% in 2017 even though the US mobile networks carried in average only 4 GB per person per month (US ranked fourteenth in mobile data usage per capita).
In Europe Play Poland was the operator with the highest mobile data capacity utilization of 55% in 2017 (48% in 2016)
Operators in the Nordics, Austria and Korea have 5 to 10 times denser macro site grids than operators in the United States or Canada and hence much higher capacity potential (i.e. 3.6 GHz massive MIMO deployed on macro sites)

Fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential with existing macro cell site grids

Elisa in Finland was the operator with the highest mobile data and spectrum usage per capita in the world and as well the operator with the highest fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential
Finland is the country with the highest fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential of 185% followed by Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Korea and Austria. The United States ranks second from the bottom in this metric with 37%
Mobile operators that will gain access to sizable TDD spectrum holdings in the 3400-3800 MHz bands and deploy it with massive MIMO can unleash the full potential of fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution i.e. 200 GB per person per month or ˜500 GB per household
In Finland where 36% of all households were mobile broadband only households (no fixed broadband connection) the average mobile data consumption per capita reached 30 gigabytes per month in 1H2018 (˜60 gigabytes per household)

Free content

Free summary, key findings, table of contents (9 pages, pdf) » Download here

PRO content

Full release report (32 pages, pdf) » Get it

List of all research reports and external articles

Featured research reports

Iliad’s 4th MNO venture into Italy – Will it pay off?

January 2019

Can Iliad make money by charging only €7.99 per subscriber?

T-Mobile and Tele2 4 to 3 mobile merger in the Netherlands – Competition concerns, network efficiencies and effective remedies

November 2018

Are there any remedies that can remove the short and long term competitions concerns entirely?

First impressions from the world’s first commercial 5G network

August 2018

In June 2018 Elisa became the first operator in the world to launch commercial service over its 5G (3.5 GHz) network in Tampere Finland and Tallinn Estonia. Elisa invited Rewheel to try its 5G network.

The massive MIMO effect: has the 3.4-3.8 GHz TDD spectrum become more valuable than 800 MHz (and 700 MHz) FDD?

April 2018

Paradigm change in mobile technology leads to paradigm change in spectrum valuations (observations after the UK auction)

Gigabyte price development in 4 to 3 consolidated versus 4-MNO European markets – September 2013 to March 2018

April 2018

As we asserted back in 2015 the merger mandated so called ‘capacity’ MVNOs did not become effective competitors

Unlimited mobile data and near zero marginal cost – a paradigm shift in telco business models

September 2017

European winners and losers in 4.5G and 5G – study of 30 operators. Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run? Spectrum valuation implications.

Volume-based mobile data monetisation is unsustainable

[External post, Linkedin]
September 2017

5G capacity abundance, flat Capex = paradigm shit. Comments from Finnish Elisa's consumer business VP under the article "what makes these [volume-based] pricing ideas profoundly unsustainable".

O2 – Ready to disrupt the German tight oligopoly market

April 2017

In March 2017 Telefonica O2 Germany announced 3.5 GHz (they have 83 MHz) Massive MIMO (= very high capacity LTE macro sectors) field trials with Huawei for wireless home broadband and 4K video. Our models predict that O2's macro site grid and spectrum resources (FDD+TDD) could allow it to drive fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution in Germany by connecting millions of households with HD TV service on its high capacity LTE network.

Capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential – A study of 64 European operators

March 2017

When LTE base stations are upgraded to 'Gigabit' speed the gigabyte volume capacity of the networks also greatly expands. We modelled LTE network capacity based on existing FDD and TDD spectrum holdings (and potential acquisitions in 2.3 and 3.4-3.8 GHz bands) and sizes of the macro site grids. Without and with Massive MIMO in the TDD bands. Topical for operators contemplating fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution ahead of upcoming 700, 1500 (SDL), 2300, 3400-3600 MHz spectrum auctions.

The market is changing. Mobile data pricing and network economics metrics and research reports for industry professionals

PRO >