Iliad’s 4th MNO venture into Italy – Will it pay off?
January 2019

Can Iliad make money by charging only €7.99 per subscriber?

  • Will Iliad achieve an EBITDA break-even with less than 10% market share as it has claimed?
  • How much will it need to invest to build a mobile network that will put it on similar footing with the other 3 MNOs?
  • How much more spectrum will Iliad need to buy and by when?
  • will Iliad’s operations in Italy turn cash flow positive?
  • Can Iliad make money by charging only €7.99 per subscriber?
  • What is the minimum ARPU level that Iliad will need in order to break even in a reasonable period?
  • Can Iliad break even only with mobile subscribers or will it need to tap into the growing broadband market?
  • Fixed broadband, wireless broadband, or both?
  • Should Iliad spend big to buy Fastweb or go solo? Is there a third way?
  • How long will Iliad’s payback period be in Italy?
  • How many billions of EUR in revenues will TIM, Vodafone and WindTre shed if Iliad breaks even with a very low ARPU?
  • Will WindTre follow Three UK’s footsteps and attack the home broadband market head-on with 5G wireless plans?
  • How far can WindTre go with just 20 MHz of 3.7 GHz spectrum? Will it need more spectrum and by when?
  • Do fixed wireless operators (Linkem, Tiscali, Go Internet, etc.) have a future?
  • Will the operators be able to deploy 5G if the Italian radiation limits are not relaxed? How much larger will the site exclusion zones become if operators deploy 20, 40, 60, 80 or more MHz in the 3.6 GHz bands with massive MIMO? A show stopper?
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