Contrary to CMA’s current speculative view – the entry of a new 4th MNO – is the only effective remedy for the Vodafone / Three merger. The CMA Chief Executive, Alex Chisholm, categorically stated in the open letter he wrote to the European Commission during the 2016 investigation of the 4 to 3 Three / O2 merger in the UK that “Absent of a new 4th MNO entry the only option available to the Commission is prohibition.”.

While monthly prices are several times higher in more concentrated mobile markets – statistically significant correlations with confidence intervals as high as 99.99% – network performance and average download speed are NOT higher in more concentrated mobile markets.

Monthly prices are 2-3x higher and gigabyte prices are 5-6x higher in markets with only 3 mobile network operators. The effective competition in markets with 4 mobile network operators not only leads to much lower mobile prices, but as well to substantially lower fixed broadband prices. In markets with only 3 mobile network operators, consumers not only pay 3x more for mobile plans with 100 gigabytes they also pay 60% more every month to buy fixed broadband plans with Gigabit speeds.

if the merger is approved without the upfront creation of a new 4th mobile network operator. Consumers in the UK could see their monthly bills rise by 26% to 51% in average. Those that subscribe to mobile plans with large or unlimited data could see their monthly cost double after the expiration of their current contracts.