4G&5G smartphone plan prices – for new contracts – continued to fall across most EU and OECD countries despite near double-digit inflation figures. The near-double-digit inflation in 2022 had a moderate price increase effect in markets where only 3-MNOs are present while it had no significant impact in markets where 4 MNOs are present. In almost all 4-MNO markets monthly prices fell or were flat despite an average inflation of ~9%.

Prices of 4G&5G smartphone plans continued to fall in EU in 1H2022. The median monthly price of smartphone plans in EU fell to 19 EUR in 1H2022. The median price of 4G plans fell to 15 EUR while the median price of 5G plans fell to 28 EUR. Prices of 5G plans continued to fall faster than 4G plans (~18% per annum versus ~12%). The Canadian wireless market, a de-facto network duopoly, was again ranked as the most expensive market among 50 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries.

When will mobile network operators run out of 4G capacity and how many more gigabytes per subscriber per month can they carry with 5G? A study of 170 mobile network operators from 50 European, American, Asian Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Zain Kuwait had the highest mobile data usage per subscriber in 2021 – 86 gigabytes per subscriber per month. Elisa Finland has the highest 4G & 5G untapped capacity potential – as much as a terabyte per subscriber per month.

What are the factors that significantly affect mobile prices? Market concentration has a statistically significant effect on mobile prices. The lower the market concertation (HHI) the lower price. The number of mobile network operators (MNOs) has an even stronger statistically significant effects on mobile prices. The higher the number of MNOs the lower the price. The presence of a maverick (disruptive firm) has as well a significant lowering effect on mobile prices.

The Greek mobile market where only 3 mobile network operators (3-MNOs) are present, was once again, ranked as the most expensive mobile market in EU and as one of the most expensive markets in the world. Even after excluding the mobile telephony tax Greek minimum monthly prices of smartphone plans with 1, 3 or 5 gigabytes were the highest in EU. And while telecom regulators in EU’s remaining 3-MNO tight oligopoly markets are taking steps to remedy effective competition – see recent 4th MNO entry in Portugal and ANACOM’s social tariff (30 gigabytes for 6 EUR) decision – the Greek telecom regulator EETT is in denial and has done little to remedy the apparent market failures in Greece.

Vodacom’s South Africa monthly price for 100 gigabytes was 19x higher than Pelephone’s Israel (~126 vs. ~6 EUR). Latest and historic (2014-2021) 4G and 5G prices from 172 operators in 50 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries.

Prices of 5G smartphone, mobile broadband and wireless broadband plans continue to fall sharply in EU in 2H2021. While the share of plans with UNLIMITED data volume continue to increase the rate of increase slowdown in 2H2021. The median gigabyte price of 4G&5G smartphone plans in the Israeli 4-MNO market fell to 0.04 EUR. 4G and 5G prices from 172 operators in 50 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries.

Canada has among the highest wireless prices in the world. The merger of Rogers and Shaw, if approved as notified, will be the final nail in the coffin of infrastructure-based competition in Canada. The only effective remedy for the merger is the upfront creation of a new maverick mobile network operator.

4G and 5G prices from 179 operators in 51 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Who are the operators with the highest and lowest monthly prices in the world?

Even after excluding the mobile telephony tax Greek prices – of smartphone plans with 1, 2 or 3 gigabytes – were the highest in EU. For 4 gigabytes Greek prices were the most expensive among 51 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Greek consumers pay 5 to 6 times more per month than French consumers to buy smartphone plans with, 1, 2, 3 or 4 gigabytes!

Canada has, if not the highest, among the highest wireless prices in the world. The minimum monthly price for a smartphone plan that includes 20 gigabytes in Canada is the highest among 51 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Consumers in Canada pay 7x more every month than consumers in France for 20 gigabytes.

Monthly prices of 4G and as well 5G plans in EU continue to fall. Plans with unlimited data volume continue to spread. 4G and 5G prices from 179 operators in 51 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries.

When will mobile network operators run out of 4G capacity and how many more gigabytes per subscriber per month can they carry with 5G? A study of 169 European, American, Asian Pacific and African operators.

1&1 Drillisch’s MVNO business in Germany would become unprofitable when 5G goes mainstream, so investing in spectrum was 1&1 Drillisch’s only choice to keep its business afloat. 1&1 Drillisch’s 4th MNO business case will be positive if BNetzA intervenes and mandates competitive national data roaming rates.

What are the factors that determine mobile prices? Market concentration (no. of MNOs) has a statistically significant effect on 4G&5G monthly and gigabyte prices. The higher the no. of MNOs the lower the price.

Elisa Finland had overall the most competitive 4G&5G connectivity monthly prices in 2H2020 among 168 mobile network operators present in 48 European, American, Asia Pacific and African countries.

The share of smartphone, mobile and wireless broadband plans with unlimited data volume continued to grow, gigabyte allowances of finite data volume plans continued to grow – but overall monthly and gigabyte prices continued to fall. Monthly prices of smartphone and wireless broadband plans with unlimited data volume fell in EU in 2H2020!

Rewheel research study commissioned by the Hellenic Competition Commission.

... and why operators in other markets can’t easily replicate the Finnish model.

In December 2019 Sunrise invited Rewheel to try its 5G based home broadband solution in Switzerland. Rewheel had previously provided consulting support for Sunrise in preparation for the 5G spectrum auction that was held in early 2019. After the modelling work and conceptual sessions, we were eager to go back to Switzerland to see how Sunrise’s engineers managed to turn theory into practice.

The value of 3400-3800 MHz 5G band is substantially higher in Poland than in other large EU markets. The spectrum valuations of the four Polish operators are highly asymmetrical.

When will EU28 & OECD operators run out of 4G capacity and how many more gigabytes per subscriber per month can they carry with 5G? A Rewheel research PRO-study of 143 European, US, Canadian, Japanese, Korean and Australian operators

Free to download Rewheel spreadsheet analysis of the bids, updated continously.

Rewheel-Tutela research study. Analysis of 99 mobile networks across EU28, Norway and Switzerland, key network performance drivers and implications on 5G infrastructure and spectrum investment strategies.

Can Iliad make money by charging only €7.99 per subscriber? What is the minimum ARPU level that Iliad will need in order to break even in a reasonable period?

Are there any remedies that can remove the short and long term competitions concerns entirely?

A study of 80 European, US, Japanese, Korean, Australian and New Zealand mobile operators. Topical for operators contemplating fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution ahead of upcoming 700, 1400 (SDL), 2300, 3400-3800 MHz spectrum auctions.

In June 2018 Elisa became the first operator in the world to launch commercial service over its 5G (3.5 GHz) network in Tampere Finland and Tallinn Estonia. Elisa invited Rewheel to try its 5G network.

European winners and losers in 4.5G and 5G – study of 30 operators. Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run? Spectrum valuation implications.

In March 2017 Telefonica O2 Germany announced 3.5 GHz (they have 83 MHz) Massive MIMO (= very high capacity LTE macro sectors) field trials with Huawei for wireless home broadband and 4K video. Our models predict that O2's macro site grid and spectrum resources (FDD+TDD) could allow it to drive fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution in Germany by connecting millions of households with HD TV service on its high capacity LTE network.

When LTE base stations are upgraded to 'Gigabit' speed the gigabyte volume capacity of the networks also greatly expands. We modelled LTE network capacity based on existing FDD and TDD spectrum holdings (and potential acquisitions in 2.3 and 3.4-3.8 GHz bands) and sizes of the macro site grids. Without and with Massive MIMO in the TDD bands. Topical for operators contemplating fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution ahead of upcoming 700, 1500 (SDL), 2300, 3400-3600 MHz spectrum auctions.