The average monthly price of 5G&4G voice-data plans with at least 1000 minutes fell 53% the last ten years across the 23 European mobile markets that use the Euro, from € 42 in the 1H2014 down € 20 in 1H2024. In Finland, the average monthly price went up by 42% from € 24 in the 1H2014 to € 34 in the 1H2024.

A comprehensive analysis and database of mobile network operator and mobile market competitiveness metrics. The database includes mobile subscribers, mobile subscriber shares, deployed radio sites, radio site density, spectrum holdings per band, mobile network data volume, average data usage per subscriber, average data usage per person, spectrum usage, average BusyHour throughput per sector, radio network capacity utilization and radio network capacity limits in 2024 and in 2030.

Contrary to CMA’s current speculative view – the entry of a new 4th MNO – is the only effective remedy for the Vodafone / Three merger. The CMA Chief Executive, Alex Chisholm, categorically stated in the open letter he wrote to the European Commission during the 2016 investigation of the 4 to 3 Three / O2 merger in the UK that “Absent of a new 4th MNO entry the only option available to the Commission is prohibition.”.

While monthly prices are several times higher in more concentrated mobile markets – statistically significant correlations with confidence intervals as high as 99.99% – network performance and average download speed are NOT higher in more concentrated mobile markets.

Monthly prices are 2-3x higher and gigabyte prices are 5-6x higher in markets with only 3 mobile network operators. The effective competition in markets with 4 mobile network operators not only leads to much lower mobile prices, but as well to substantially lower fixed broadband prices. In markets with only 3 mobile network operators, consumers not only pay 3x more for mobile plans with 100 gigabytes they also pay 60% more every month to buy fixed broadband plans with Gigabit speeds.

if the merger is approved without the upfront creation of a new 4th mobile network operator. Consumers in the UK could see their monthly bills rise by 26% to 51% in average. Those that subscribe to mobile plans with large or unlimited data could see their monthly cost double after the expiration of their current contracts.

50 wireless markets and 168 mobile network operators. A comprehensive analysis and database of mobile network operator and wireless market competitiveness metrics. The database includes mobile subscribers, 5G Standalone, 5G-4G radio sites, radio site density, spectrum holdings, network data traffic load, data usage, spectrum usage, radio network capacity utilization, capacity limit, capacity potential, network performance, prices for 5G-4G voice plans, 5G voice plans, 5G fixed wireless broadband plans and many more wireless competitiveness metrics.

5G fixed wireless access (FWA) broadband plans are marketed and priced as equal or better alternatives compared to non- pure fibre based broadband plans. In 9 out of 50 countries (e.g., in the UK and Switzerland) plans with the lowest monthly price, for 100 Mbit/s download speed, were 5G FWA rather than fixed broadband plans. While broadband prices are higher in more expensive countries mobile prices are not. Mobile monthly prices are, in average, 2-3 times lower in 4 vs. 3 MNO markets.

4G&5G smartphone plan prices – for new contracts – continued to fall across most EU and OECD countries despite near double-digit inflation figures. The near-double-digit inflation in 2022 had a moderate price increase effect in markets where only 3-MNOs are present while it had no significant impact in markets where 4 MNOs are present. In almost all 4-MNO markets monthly prices fell or were flat despite an average inflation of ~9%.

When will mobile network operators run out of 4G capacity and how many more gigabytes per subscriber per month can they carry with 5G? A study of 170 mobile network operators from 50 European, American, Asian Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Zain Kuwait had the highest mobile data usage per subscriber in 2021 – 86 gigabytes per subscriber per month. Elisa Finland has the highest 4G & 5G untapped capacity potential – as much as a terabyte per subscriber per month.

What are the factors that significantly affect mobile prices? Market concentration has a statistically significant effect on mobile prices. The lower the market concertation (HHI) the lower price. The number of mobile network operators (MNOs) has an even stronger statistically significant effects on mobile prices. The higher the number of MNOs the lower the price. The presence of a maverick (disruptive firm) has as well a significant lowering effect on mobile prices.

The Greek mobile market where only 3 mobile network operators (3-MNOs) are present, was once again, ranked as the most expensive mobile market in EU and as one of the most expensive markets in the world. Even after excluding the mobile telephony tax Greek minimum monthly prices of smartphone plans with 1, 3 or 5 gigabytes were the highest in EU. And while telecom regulators in EU’s remaining 3-MNO tight oligopoly markets are taking steps to remedy effective competition – see recent 4th MNO entry in Portugal and ANACOM’s social tariff (30 gigabytes for 6 EUR) decision – the Greek telecom regulator EETT is in denial and has done little to remedy the apparent market failures in Greece.

4G and 5G prices from 179 operators in 51 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Who are the operators with the highest and lowest monthly prices in the world?

Even after excluding the mobile telephony tax Greek prices – of smartphone plans with 1, 2 or 3 gigabytes – were the highest in EU. For 4 gigabytes Greek prices were the most expensive among 51 European, American, Asia Pacific, Middle East and African countries. Greek consumers pay 5 to 6 times more per month than French consumers to buy smartphone plans with, 1, 2, 3 or 4 gigabytes!

What are the factors that determine mobile prices? Market concentration (no. of MNOs) has a statistically significant effect on 4G&5G monthly and gigabyte prices. The higher the no. of MNOs the lower the price.

Elisa Finland had overall the most competitive 4G&5G connectivity monthly prices in 2H2020 among 168 mobile network operators present in 48 European, American, Asia Pacific and African countries.

The share of smartphone, mobile and wireless broadband plans with unlimited data volume continued to grow, gigabyte allowances of finite data volume plans continued to grow – but overall monthly and gigabyte prices continued to fall. Monthly prices of smartphone and wireless broadband plans with unlimited data volume fell in EU in 2H2020!

Mobile data prices in Latin American 4-MNO markets are competitive and broadly on par with European and other OECD 4-MNO market prices. Mobile data prices in Latin American 3-MNO markets are sub- or non-competitive (i.e. significantly higher than 4-MNO market prices).

Monthly prices of plans with unlimited data volume and as well gigabyte prices of plans with data caps continue to be significantly higher in the 3-MNO German versus the 4-MNO Italian, French, Spanish and UK markets.

The share of smartphone and mobile/wireless broadband plans with unlimited data volume continues to grow, gigabyte allowances of finite data volume plans continue to grow – but overall monthly prices continue to fall.

Rewheel research study commissioned by the Hellenic Competition Commission.

... and why operators in other markets can’t easily replicate the Finnish model.

In December 2019 Sunrise invited Rewheel to try its 5G based home broadband solution in Switzerland. Rewheel had previously provided consulting support for Sunrise in preparation for the 5G spectrum auction that was held in early 2019. After the modelling work and conceptual sessions, we were eager to go back to Switzerland to see how Sunrise’s engineers managed to turn theory into practice.

The introduction of 5G has supercharged the transition to a basically unlimited everything model. But despite all the more-for-more buzz gigabyte allowances continue to grow while monthly prices continue to fall.

When will EU28 & OECD operators run out of 4G capacity and how many more gigabytes per subscriber per month can they carry with 5G? A Rewheel research PRO-study of 143 European, US, Canadian, Japanese, Korean and Australian operators

What is wrong with competition in the Canadian, Japanese and US markets? Gigabyte prices in 4-MNO markets continue to fall faster than in 3-MNO markets.
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4G prices as a function market concentration, no. of MNOs, operator subscriber share, position, group affiliation, country general price level

2019

4G

prices

number

of

mobile

network

operators

concentration

The state of 4G pricing – 2H2018 – Digital Fuel Monitor 10th release

2018

dfmonitor

data-caps

pricing

mobile-first

UnitedStates

Capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential with existing macro site grids – 2017

2018

spectrum

mobile-first

massiveMIMO

Finland

Elisa

5G

networkeconomics

Verizon

UnitedStates

Play

Poland

The state of 4G pricing – 1H2018 – Digital Fuel Monitor 9^th release

2018

dfmonitor

data-caps

pricing

mobile-first

The state of 4G pricing – 2H2017 – Digital Fuel Monitor 8^th release

2017

dfmonitor

data-caps

pricing

mobile-first

Unlimited mobile data and near zero marginal cost – a paradigm shift in telco business models

2017

networkeconomics

mobile-first

pricing

spectrum

5G

massiveMIMO

Telefonica

DeutscheTelekom

Vodafone

Orange

Hutchison

TelecomItalia

Elisa

DNA

Sunrise

Salt

Play

Tele2

Telenor

Swisscom

TelekomAustria

Digital Fuel Monitor 7^th release, 1H2017

2017

dfmonitor

spectrum

data-caps

pricing

mobile-first

zero-rating

roaming

networkeconomics

O2 – Ready to disrupt the German tight oligopoly market

2017

networkeconomics

mobile-first

pricing

merger

spectrum

5G

massiveMIMO

Germany

Telefonica

DeutscheTelekom

Vodafone

Capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution potential – A study of 64 European operators

2017

networkeconomics

mobile-first

spectrum

5G

massiveMIMO

Finland

United Kingdom

Poland

Austria

Germany

Hutchison

Telefonica

Play

Elisa

Tight oligopoly mobile markets in EU28 in 2016

2016

spectrum

networkeconomics

pricing

merger

mobile-first

zero-rating

Germany

DeutscheTelekom

Vodafone

Telefonica

Orange

Is spectrum usage harmonised across the EU28 national mobile markets?

2016

5G

spectrum

mobile-first

networkeconomics

Vodafone

Telefonica

DeutscheTelekom

Orange

KPN

DNA

Elisa

Tele2

Finland

Greece

Spectrum harmonisation: the key to 5G? Rewheel's material presented on the ECTA Regulatory Conference 2016

Unlimited mobile data is back — The state of 4G pricing and spectrum usage, 2nd half 2016 Digital Fuel Monitor 6th release

2016

dfmonitor

spectrum

data-caps

pricing

mobile-first

zero-rating

roaming

networkeconomics

EU’s 5G competition challenge

2016

5G

mobile-first

networkeconomics

A handful of big telco groups – with vested interests in fixed-line broadband – impose very restrictive mobile internet usage caps. This raises serious concerns that these telco groups – that tightly control most EU national markets – will not be incentivised to sell competitively priced 5G internet access.

Mobile data usage (gigabyte volume) in Finland is set to overtake fixed-line broadband usage in Germany in 2016

2016

Finland

Germany

mobile-first

Elisa

Dna

TeliaCompany

networkeconomics

The State of 4G Pricing - first half 2016, Digital Fuel Monitor 5^th Release

2016

dfmonitor

pricing

zero-rating

mobile-first

merger

Telenor Denmark – Turnaround strategy

2016

Telenor

Denmark

mobile-first

networkeconomics

Tight oligopoly mobile markets in EU28 in 2015

2016

spectrum

pricing

merger

mobile-first

zero-rating

Germany

DeutscheTelekom

Vodafone

Telefonica

Orange

Tight oligopolies and the need for ex ante regulation – Why BEREC is right and ETNO is wrong

2015

tight-oligopoly

mobile-first

zero-rating

pricing

E-Plus Germany mobile data impact analysis — showing way forward for challenger operators?

2010

Germany

KPN

spectrum

mobile-first

networkeconomics

2010

spectrum

mobile-first

networkeconomics