In-depth comparison of 4G prices and gigabytes in the 3-MNO consolidated German versus the 4-MNO UK, French and Italian markets – implications for the German 5G market.

Can Iliad make money by charging only €7.99 per subscriber? What is the minimum ARPU level that Iliad will need in order to break even in a reasonable period?

With special focus on US prices ahead of the planned 4 to 3 consolidation. How many 4G gigabytes €5, €10, €15, €20, €25, €30, €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 could buy in EU and OECD markets on smartphone and data-only plans.

Four months after Deutsche Telekom announced the acquisition of Tele2 by T-Mobile in the Netherlands and few days before the parties notified the 4 to 3 mobile merger to the European Commission Tele2 unexpectedly increased prices.

How many 4G gigabytes €5, €10, €15, €20, €25, €30, €40, €50, €60, €70 and €80 could buy in EU and OECD markets on smartphone and data-only plans. What a difference a 4th mobile network operator makes!

As we asserted back in 2015 the merger mandated so called ‘capacity’ MVNOs did not become effective competitors.

After a comeback in 2016 unlimited mobile data has spread further during 2017.

European winners and losers in 4.5G and 5G – study of 30 operators. Will mobile network CAPEX stay flat in the long run? Spectrum valuation implications.

The state of 4G pricing, mobile data usage, spectrum usage, network capacity utilization and fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution. After its comeback in 2016, in 2017 unlimited mobile data goes viral and spreads to 22 countries. And while in competitive markets such as France and Denmark consumers can buy 100 or unlimited gigabytes for less than €30, in tight mobile oligopoly markets such as Portugal, Greece and Hungary €30 hardly buys any gigabytes.

In March 2017 Telefonica O2 Germany announced 3.5 GHz (they have 83 MHz) Massive MIMO (= very high capacity LTE macro sectors) field trials with Huawei for wireless home broadband and 4K video. Our models predict that O2's macro site grid and spectrum resources (FDD+TDD) could allow it to drive fixed-to-mobile broadband substitution in Germany by connecting millions of households with HD TV service on its high capacity LTE network.

The gap between gigabyte prices in the 4 to 3 consolidated Austrian & German markets and prices in 4-MNO markets where no consolidation has taken place had substantially increased by September 2016

Fixed-line broadband interest, zero-rating video and big telco ownership impedes competition in mobile markets

Full release report for Digital Fuel Monitor-PRO clients

The Commission proposed wholesale data roaming cap of €8.5/GB appears to be carefully calibrated to protect the very high domestic retail prices charged by operators in tight oligopoly markets (e.g. Germany, Spain) while penalizing operators with competitive much lower domestic retail prices (e.g. Finland, Denmark, Poland)

Public release summary

Comprehensive analysis of factors that give rise to unilateral anti-competitive effects leading to non-competitive outcomes and consumer harm in tight mobile oligopolies.

Public release summary

There are substantial empirical market evidences supporting the notion that close to half of EU’s mobile markets exhibit tight oligopoly non- or sub-competitive market outcomes.

Public release summary

Analysis of smartphone mobile internet access roaming prices in EU28 in Q4 2014

Vertical integration of internet access with telcos’ specialized services (e.g. telco TV) and vertical integration of dominant search engines with internet search specialized services (e.g. Google Flights) are both severely restricting consumer choice, foreclose competition and harm the open internet

Major price movements on both sides of the Atlantic between Q1 and Q4 2014. Smartphone internet usage price rankings, price changes and internet access speeds EU28, OECD, 41 countries, 69 operator groups, 136 operators, 40 operator discount brands and 84 MVNOs.

One possible reason could be to make their own zero-rated traffic heavy smartphone apps more appealing to the end consumers. We compared the pricing of incremental gigabytes of Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica, Orange and Hutchison across their EU & OECD footprints.

In this flash insight we benchmarked key mobile internet connectivity competitiveness metrics in the United States against EU Member States and other OECD countries. In addition we show Deutsche Telekom (T-mobile) prices and network performance (measured by OpenSignal) in US vs different EU Member States.

The high, in many cases unaffordable, Gigabyte prices commanded by operators in protected markets where challengers are not present are effectively suppressing mobile broadband penetration and most importantly mobile data consumption.

Contrary to GSMA's and ETNO's unsubstantiated claims echoed by Vice President Neelie Kroes Commissioner for EU's Digital Agenda, European 3G/4G consumers pay 5x less and use more mobile data at faster connections speeds than US consumers.

Mobile internet access represents the fuel of the digital economies, the price of gigabytes is analogue to the price of energy (€/kWh) for traditional industries. Proliferation of all you can eat voice & SMS tariffs exposes non-competitive mobile internet pricing practices.

EU’s single telecom market is threatened by the lack of mobile network infrastructure based competition within the national borders of half of EU’s member states and from the noticeable absence of pan-European retail operators offering borderless European tariffs.

Smartphones represent the vehicles and their tariff plans the fuel of the digitial economy. Our research reveals alarming differences in the absolute price level and affordability of smartphone tariffs across the EU27 member states. Moreover, our analysis shows that in the affected member states high prices are already suppressing mobile internet adoption. The impacts of E5 Group presence are also addressed.